Prediction markets · regulated fiat
Regulated prediction markets
Event contracts in US dollars on exchanges the CFTC oversees, with identity checks before you trade. Four of the five serve US residents only; Kalshi also accepts members from many other countries under its Member Agreement.
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Venue
Settlement
Cost to trade
Account
Payout
2
Polymarket US →
Operated by QCX LLC, a CFTC-registered exchange and clearing house.
USD
Taker fee scaled by price; 0.0695 rate from 17 Sep 2026
Full identity check
Withdrawals go back to the deposit method
3
Robinhood Prediction Markets →
Contracts listed on Kalshi, ForecastEx and Rothera. Not available in every state.
USD
5% (Gold) or 10% commission, weighted by price, plus exchange fee
Robinhood brokerage account, US, 18+
Withdrawable within 1 business day
4
ForecastEx →
CFTC-registered exchange and clearing house for economic, political and climate contracts.
USD
$0.01 per matched Yes/No pair, plus broker costs
Through a broker such as Interactive Brokers
$1 at settlement, plus a monthly coupon
5
PredictIt →
Not CFTC-regulated; runs political markets under a CFTC no-action letter. US persons only.
USD
10% of profit; 5% on withdrawals
Name, address and date of birth checked
$1 per correct share; 30-day hold after first deposit
Who can use them
From each venue’s own eligibility pages.
Kalshi →
Open in the US and in many other countries. The Kalshi Member Agreement names 55 Restricted Jurisdictions where members may not trade event contracts, plus any place under US economic sanctions; the restriction covers event contracts only, and Kalshi keeps the discretion to admit members from those places on its own terms. International accounts fund by debit card, wire (minimum $1,000) or crypto.
Polymarket US →
A US exchange for US customers; Polymarket's international site serves the rest of the world.
Robinhood Prediction Markets →
US residents aged 18 or over with an individual brokerage account, though not in every state: Maryland residents can't trade sports contracts, and Nevada residents can't open new ones.
ForecastEx →
Traded through ForecastEx's member brokers, such as Interactive Brokers. Who can trade depends on the broker you hold an account with; forecastex.com keeps a broker directory.
PredictIt →
Open only to U.S. Persons aged 18 or older.